Toronto Housing Market Trends & Forecast 2022-2023

In 2022, Canada’s housing market maintained its downward trend, with the volume of home sales decreasing by a third compared to the previous year and house prices falling by over 10%. According to a press release from the Canadian Real Estate Association, the average price of a home in the GTA in October 2021 was $1,159,763. One year later, the average price dropped by 5% to $1,098,502, showing a reduction of 5%.

According to recent data from the Toronto Region Real Estate Board, the average price for all property types in November 2022 was $1,079,39 compared to $1,162,564 in November 2021, a decrease of 7.2%. November homeownership market activity continued to be driven by the impact of rising interest rates on affordability.  Following the pattern that has developed since the beginning of interest rate hikes in the spring, sales were significantly lower compared to the same period last year.

In addition to being much lower than the previous year, the number of new listings was historically low. Since August, average selling prices have stayed between $1.08 and $1.09 million due to the fact that the number of available homes has remained low. Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 4,544 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2022 – a decrease of 49 percent compared to November 2021, but a level comparable to October, especially when accounting for the repeating seasonal decline in the fall.

“Increased borrowing costs represent a short-term shock to the housing market. Over the medium- to long-term, the demand for ownership housing will pick up strongly. This is because a huge share of record immigration will be pointed at the GTA and the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) in the coming years, and all of these people will require a place to live, with the majority looking to buy. The long-term problem for policymakers will not be inflation and borrowing costs, but rather ensuring we have enough housing to accommodate population growth,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

Both year-over-year and month-over-month, the number of new listings (8,880) decreased. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was down by 5.5 percent year-over-year in November 2022. The average selling price for all home types combined was down by 7.2 percent year-over-year. Annual price declines continued to be greater for more expensive market segments, including detached and semi-detached houses.

“Selling prices declined from the early year peak as market conditions became more balanced and homebuyers have sought to mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs. With that being said, the marked-down price trend experienced in the spring has come to an end. Selling prices have flatlined alongside average monthly mortgage payments since the summer,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Toronto Housing Market Forecast 2023

In the past month, home prices in Toronto have decreased by around 5.5%, with the decline being most pronounced for detached (11.3%) and semi-detached properties (13.9 percent). In February of last year, the average price of all property types in Toronto peaked at $1,334,062 and bottomed out in July at $1,073,242. The average price across all property types was $1,079,398 in November 2022, compared to $1,089,428 in October, decreasing by roughly $10,000.

Here is the summary of the Toronto housing market for November 2022.

• The average home sold price in the Toronto area decreased 7% year-over-year to $1,079,395 for November 2022.
• The continued slowdown in Toronto’s housing market has been contrasted with some support in prices, led by restricted supply on the market.
• The detached home average price decreased by 11% year-over-year to $1.39M.
• The semi-detached home average price decreased by 14% year-over-year to $1.04M.
• Freehold townhouse average price decreased by 9% year-over-year to $994k.
• The condo apartment average price remained the same year-over-year.

The average price of a property sold in the City of Toronto was $1,050,788 in November 2022, a 4% reduction from the previous month’s average price of $1,093,097. This also corresponds to a 4% annual decline. This is consistent with the broader market trend, as the average home price in GTA has decreased by 7% year-over-year.

Other regions of the Greater Toronto Area have experienced variable growth. The average home price in Mississauga for November 2022 was $1,022,312, down 2% year-over-year and up 4% month-over-month. The average home price in Brampton was $999,631, a decrease of 12% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month.

In one month, Oakville home prices have declined by 6% to $1,397,718, from $1,487,485 last month, whilst Markham home prices have grown by 5% to $1,344,123. Additionally, Vaughan home prices rose 9% month-over-month to $1,359,684. Some sections of the GTA property market are experiencing monthly price decreases while others are experiencing monthly price increases.

The Forecast

According to Re/Max Canada’s housing market forecast for 2023, the average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area is projected to decrease by about 12 percent over the following year. According to Re/Max Canada’s housing market forecast for 2023, the average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area is projected to decrease by about 12 percent over the following year.

Amid rising interest rates and a looming recession, RE/MAX Canada is anticipating a modest decline of 3.3 percent in average residential sales prices across the country in 2023. The estimates are based on surveys of RE/MAX brokers and agents from coast to coast. In sharp contrast to 2022, most regions analyzed in the report will experience more balanced conditions in 2023 – a trend that’s already starting to materialize as a result of current economic conditions.